Executive Summary

Q4 2024 results missed Wall Street consensus: revenue $2.21M vs $2.42M estimate and EPS $-6.30 vs $-4.20 estimate; margins deteriorated meaningfully quarter over quarter due to higher operating costs, driving a larger net loss. [Values retrieved from S&P Global]*
Full-year 2024 revenue was a record $9.4M (+~270% YoY), propelled by consolidated pathology operations and accelerating CyPath Lung adoption; however, 2025 revenue guidance was set lower at $6–$8M as the company exits unprofitable pathology services.
Commercial traction improved: Medicare/private reimbursement, U.S. Federal Supply Schedule listing, expanded physician network; cash ended 2024 at $1.1M with a $2.66M financing closed in October 2024 and $1.4M raised via warrant exercises in Feb 2025.
Post-report, shares surged sharply on record FY revenue and improving operating narrative (multi-day reaction).

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

Medicare and private payer reimbursement with unique CPT code, plus addition to the U.S. Federal Supply Schedule expanding addressability across 1,380 VA/Military facilities; management: “Physician adoption is accelerating… positioning us for sustained growth.”
2024 momentum: Record $9.4M revenue (+~270% YoY), ~1,400% growth in CyPath Lung orders vs 2023, >300% increase in signed physician offices.
Pipeline and pivotal trial progress: protocol submitted to IRB for ~3,500-patient FDA pivotal study; sites qualified across academic, private, military and VA centers.

What Went Wrong

Q4 2024 underperformed consensus: revenue and EPS both missed; EBITDA margin and EBIT margin contracted sharply QoQ, reflecting high operating expense intensity. [Values retrieved from S&P Global]*
2025 revenue guide down to $6–$8M (including $1–$2M from CyPath Lung) due to discontinuation of unprofitable pathology services; though costs are expected to be reduced, top-line reset may temper near-term growth expectations.
Liquidity tightness: cash was $1.1M at year-end; reliance on external financing (Oct 2024 $2.66M offering, Feb 2025 warrant exercises) underscores capital needs ahead of pivotal trial ramp.

Financial Results

Quarterly comparatives vs prior periods

Metric	Q4 2023	Q2 2024	Q3 2024	Q4 2024
Revenue ($USD Millions)	$2.21*	$2.40*	$2.35*	$2.21*
Net Income ($USD Millions)	$(2.37)*	$(2.11)*	$(2.00)*	$(2.97)*
Diluted EPS ($USD)	$-7.63*	$-5.56*	$-4.84*	$-6.30*
EBIT ($USD Millions)	$(2.34)*	$(2.09)*	$(1.97)*	$(2.95)*
EBITDA ($USD Millions)	$(2.19)*	$(1.84)*	$(1.82)*	$(2.79)*
EBITDA Margin (%)	-99.11%*	-76.76%*	-77.54%*	-126.51%*
EBIT Margin (%)	-105.83%*	-87.08%*	-83.98%*	-133.47%*
Net Income Margin (%)	-107.22%*	-88.01%*	-85.13%*	-134.40%*
Total Operating Expenses ($USD Millions)	$4.56*	$4.49*	$4.32*	$5.15*

Notes: Asterisk indicates values retrieved from S&P Global.
Cross-check: Company reported Q3 revenue “$2.4M” in the 8-K press release; net loss $2.0M ($0.16 per share).

Q4 2024 vs Estimates (S&P Global)

Metric	Estimate	Actual	Surprise
Revenue ($USD Millions)	$2.42	$2.21	Miss: $(0.21)M (−8.8%)*
EPS ($USD)	$-4.20	$-6.30	Miss: $-2.10*
EBITDA ($USD Millions)	N/A	$(2.79)	N/A*
# of EPS Estimates	1	—	—*
# of Revenue Estimates	1	—	—*

Notes: Asterisk indicates values retrieved from S&P Global.

KPI snapshot

KPI	Q4 2023	Q1 2024	Q2 2024	Q3 2024	Q4 2024
CyPath Lung test orders (units)	12	53	168	Not disclosed	Not disclosed
States ordering CyPath Lung	—	—	8+ states listed	11 states	FSS access to 1,380 facilities

Revenue composition (qualitative)

Revenue primarily generated from patient service fees (including CyPath Lung) and histology fees; 2024 increase largely driven by full-year consolidated operations of Precision Pathology (PPLS).

Guidance Changes

Metric	Period	Previous Guidance	Current Guidance	Change
Total Revenue ($USD Millions)	FY 2025	Not provided	$6–$8	Lowered vs FY 2024 actual
CyPath Lung Revenue ($USD Millions)	FY 2025	Not provided	$1–$2	First disclosure
Pathology Services (portfolio)	FY 2025	Not provided	Discontinue certain unprofitable services	Strategic exit; cost offsets expected
Laboratory cost structure	FY 2025	Not provided	Lower labor/overhead expected	Cost reductions to offset lower revenue
Clinical development expense	FY 2025	Not provided	Expected increase	Pivotal trial enrollment to begin

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

Note: No Q4 2024 earnings call transcript was found via company documents or public sources. (https://ir.bioaffinitytech.com/news-events/press-releases)

Topic	Previous Mentions (Q-2)	Previous Mentions (Q-1)	Current Period (Q4 2024/FY release)	Trend
AI/technology	Flow cytometry + AI platform highlighted; sensitivity/specificity metrics cited.	—	Continued emphasis on AI-enabled diagnostics and pipeline expansion (COPD/asthma).	Expanding
Supply chain	—	—	Not discussed	Stable
Tariffs/macro	—	—	Not discussed	Stable
Product performance	217% QoQ sales growth; raised CyPath forecast; 168 tests in Q2.	53 tests in Q1; early traction.	~1,400% YoY order growth; expanded physician offices >300%.	Improving
Regional trends	8 states ordering (list provided).	—	11 states; FSS enables access across 1,380 facilities.	Broadened footprint
Regulatory/reimbursement	Medicare/private reimbursement; CPT code effective Jan 2024.	—	Reaffirmed reimbursement; FSS listing in Oct 2024.	Strengthening
R&D execution	Collaboration with Brooke Army Medical Center; new product development (COPD, bronchoscopy companion).	—	COPD/asthma diagnostic pipeline noted; pivotal trial protocol submitted to IRB; sites qualified.	Advancing

Management Commentary

“We are proud of the tremendous strides… achieving record revenue and laying the groundwork for continued growth.” — Maria Zannes, President & CEO.
“Our inclusion on the U.S. Federal Supply Schedule marks a major milestone, ensuring Veterans and military personnel… have easy access to CyPath Lung.”
“As we look to 2025, our focus remains on expanding commercial adoption… starting our FDA pivotal study… and advancing our pipeline of diagnostics powered by artificial intelligence and flow cytometry.”
“With the recent streamlining of operations that will increase profitability at our laboratory…”

Q&A Highlights

No Q4 2024 earnings call transcript was available; guidance clarifications and analyst Q&A not published at the time of review. (https://ir.bioaffinitytech.com/news-events/press-releases)

Estimates Context

Q4 2024 missed both revenue and EPS consensus (one estimate each): revenue $2.21M vs $2.42M (-8.8%), EPS $-6.30 vs $-4.20 (miss $2.10). Expect near-term estimate revisions to reflect lower FY 2025 revenue guide and the discontinuation of certain pathology services. [Values retrieved from S&P Global]*

Key Takeaways for Investors

Near-term top-line reset: FY 2025 revenue guided to $6–$8M as unprofitable pathology services are discontinued; watch for margin improvement from cost cuts despite lower revenue.
Commercial tailwinds: Medicare/private reimbursement and FSS listing materially expand access; growing physician adoption bodes well for CyPath Lung test demand.
Clinical catalyst path: pivotal trial initiation in 2025; success could expand label and drive broader adoption; monitor trial enrollment and interim updates.
Liquidity and financing: tight year-end cash ($1.1M) partly mitigated by Oct 2024 financing ($2.66M) and Feb 2025 warrant exercises ($1.4M); further capital raises are possible near trial ramp.
Operating discipline: SG&A was $9.9M in 2024; management expects streamlining to increase lab profitability—track OpEx trajectory vs revenue mix shift.
Trading setup: multi-day post-earnings stock strength suggests sensitivity to commercialization milestones and clinical progress; downside risks tied to execution on guidance reset and funding cadence.
Estimate risk: with only one covering estimate for Q4, modeling dispersion is high; expect revisions to incorporate FY 2025 guide, margin trajectory, and trial costs. [Values retrieved from S&P Global]*

Additional references: Company FY 2024 press release and financials (Business Wire/IR site).

Footnote: * Values retrieved from S&P Global.

bioAffinity Technologies, Inc. (BIAF)·Q4 2024 Earnings Summary